On the Estimation of Lagrangian Diffusivity: Influence of Nonstationary Mean Flow

Eddy–mean flow decomposition is crucial to the estimation of Lagrangian diffusivity based on drifter data. Previous studies have shown that inhomogeneous mean flow induces shear dispersion that increases the estimated diffusivity with time. In the present study, the influences of nonstationary mean flows on the estimation of Lagrangian diffusivity, especially the asymptotic behavior, are investigated using a first-order stochastic model, with both idealized and satellite-based oceanic mean flows. Results from both experiments show that, in addition to inhomogeneity, nonstationarity of mean flows that contain slowly varying signals, such as a seasonal cycle, also cause large biases in the estimates of diffusivity within a time lag of 2 months if a traditional binning method is used. Therefore, when assessing Lagrangian diffusivity over regions where a seasonal cycle is significant [e.g., the Indian Ocean (IO) dominated by monsoon winds], inhomogeneity and nonstationarity of the mean flow should be simultaneously taken into account in eddy–mean flow decomposition. A temporally and spatially continuous fit through the Gauss–Markov (GM) estimator turns out to be very efficient in isolating the effects of inhomogeneity and nonstationarity of the mean flow, resulting in estimates that are closest to the true diffusivity, especially in regions where strong seasonal cycles exist such as the eastern coast of Somalia and the equatorial IO.